Data insight
Mallorca Airbnb: 1,557 guest places advertised above licensed capacity in one night
When Airbnb advertises more guest capacity than the official register allows, the gap is not a rounding error. It represents real capacity in the market beyond what the license allows.
These figures isolate capacity mismatch only and exclude missing or unregistered licenses, which are covered separately.
This corresponds to 623 listings with a capacity mismatch, or about 6.5% of the matched cohort (9,545 listings).
Paste any Airbnb link into the property check to compare advertised guests with the official register.
Check if your listing advertises more guests than your license allows →What this analysis includes
- Only listings where an Airbnb maximum guest count can be matched to a government license with a stated capacity.
- The headline “capacity mismatch” flag: Airbnb guests exceed the registered limit.
What stays outside this page
- Missing or unregistered licenses are not counted as capacity mismatch. They are covered in separate analyses.
- The “Guest capacity totals” row that mixes mismatch with missing or unregistered listings is a separate aggregate so you can compare scale; read the labels literally.
One night: every property at full advertised capacity
We first sum advertised maxima as if each matched listing were full for one night. This is the upper bound of the extra demand shown on the platform compared to the register.
It shows the maximum scale of the problem if every listing reached its advertised capacity at once.
Based on 9545 listings with both an Airbnb maximum guest count and a matched licence with stated capacity.
Advertised above license: 1,557 guest capacity in the matched cohort.
| Scenario (one night, each listing full to its Airbnb maximum) | Guest capacity |
|---|---|
| Total advertised on Airbnb | 58,865 |
| Within licensed capacity | 57,308 |
| Advertised beyond the license | 1,557 |
This excess represents demand that is visible on the platform but not supported by licensed capacity.
The first row is the sum of advertised maxima. The second is the part that still fits each property’s license if guests are capped at the register limit (it equals advertised capacity minus the excess above license). The third row is the total number of guests advertised above licensed capacity.
This means that even if most listings comply individually, the aggregate still introduces a measurable capacity gap in the market.
Check if your property advertises more guests than your license allows.
Open the property check →How listings are distributed by advertised excess
For each value N, the table shows how many Airbnb properties advertise exactly N more guests than their license allows. The last row groups every property where the excess is 8 or more guests.
Most discrepancies are small in absolute terms: about 81.2% of affected properties sit in the +1 to +3 guest range. There is still a visible tail, with 17 properties advertising 8 or more extra guests.
| Guests over licensed capacity | Airbnb properties |
|---|---|
| 1 | 244 |
| 2 | 222 |
| 3 | 40 |
| 4 | 61 |
| 5 | 8 |
| 6 | 22 |
| 7 | 9 |
| 8 or more | 17 |
What this means in money
Using the same assumptions as the revenue exposure report: 75% annual occupancy, typical guests at 80% of the advertised maximum on Airbnb and a Mallorca reference average of about 295 € per night in 2026, the modelled guest-nights above licensed capacity translate into:
Roughly 52.46 million € per year in modelled terms (illustrative, not observed revenue).
For the full market picture and yearly table, see Mallorca Airbnb revenue exposure insight.
Illustrative model from RadarLicencias. It does not replace official inspection or enforcement data.
Guest capacity totals
Licensed capacities use the official register. Excess is Airbnb guests minus licensed guests for capacity-mismatch listings only. The last row sums Airbnb guest counts for every listing that has a capacity mismatch, no licence or an unregistered licence.
| Metric | Guests |
|---|---|
| Total licensed guest capacity (no irregularities) | 71,378 |
| Total licensed guest capacity (capacity mismatch) | 3,331 |
| Total excess guests (capacity mismatch) | 1,557 |
| Total Airbnb guest capacity (capacity mismatch, missing or unregistered license) | 8,995 |
Estimated guest-nights above licensed capacity per year
177,828
Sum over capacity-mismatch listings only. A guest-night is one guest for one night, not a count of unique visitors.
- 75% of nights booked per year (about 274 booked nights per listing).
- Average stay 4 days as a typical short-term rental pattern (context for the model).
- For each listing: typical guests = 80% of the advertised maximum on Airbnb, minus licensed capacity; keep only positive values; multiply by booked nights per year per listing; sum and round.
Takeaway
The issue is not only that discrepancies exist. When they take the form of extra advertised guests, they directly increase the market’s visible capacity beyond what licenses allow. Even small per-property gaps add up to a large volume of guest-nights above licensed capacity and a meaningful revenue impact in the model.
For new licenses by official activity start year, see New tourism licenses on Airbnb by year.
